Rabobank's latest projections indicate a significant upturn in avocado production within Australia, with expectations set for a 20% increase, reaching 139,000 metric tonnes in the 2023-24 period. This growth is attributed to 1,500 hectares of avocado orchards maturing this year, with an additional 4,000 hectares anticipated to reach maturity in the next five years. The expansion in production capacity is likely to exert downward pressure on retail prices, which have remained below $2 at major supermarkets, with occasional drops below $1. Despite potential price volatility due to Western Australia's off-year in production, the overall trend points towards lower average prices in the long term.
Domestically, the surge in avocado production has outpaced demand, despite Australians' robust appetite for the fruit, which has grown at an annual compounded rate of 10% over the past decade. The resultant surplus has necessitated a pivot towards international markets, with exports expanding by 55% in the last year.
Emerging markets such as India and Hong Kong have shown considerable interest, complementing established demand from the United States, where import volumes have reached record highs. However, the industry faces challenges in further growth due to market saturation and declining global prices. Efforts are underway to secure regulatory approval for exporting to new markets, including Japan and China, to mitigate these challenges and capitalize on Japan's significant consumer base, albeit with current limitations to seasonal access for West Australian farmers.
Source: thenewdaily.com.au