Mid-May reports from AMS-1 USDA indicate that strawberry shipping-point prices in California are holding steady at around USD 8 per flat for non-organic varieties, mirroring prices from the previous year. As the strawberry season in California moves past its peak in early June, shipment levels are reported to be consistent with those of the prior year.
In contrast, lemon shipping-point prices for 140s have seen a 20% year-over-year increase, reaching USD 36 per carton and exceeding the five-year mid-May average by 23%. The USDA forecasts a 15% decrease in California lemon production to 22 million boxes for the 2023/24 season, prompting an uptick in imports. Navel orange production in California is anticipated to conclude the 2023/24 season with a 5% increase year-over-year, totaling 38 million boxes. Shipping-point prices for 88s navel oranges have surged by 32% year-over-year to approximately USD 26 per carton by mid-May. Valencia orange production for 2024 is projected to fall by 7% year-over-year to 8 million boxes, with early-season shipping-point prices exceeding USD 25 per carton, up 25% from the previous year. Prices for these citrus fruits are expected to remain firm throughout the summer.
Avocado market dynamics are also noteworthy, with mid-May 2024 shipping-point prices for 48s California avocados at about USD 50 per carton, marking a 48% year-over-year increase and aligning with the five-year average. The mid-season crop estimate for California avocados is 20% above the pre-season forecast, exceeding 250 million pounds. However, shipments from Peru are anticipated to decrease year-over-year. The USDA has temporarily halted avocado inspections from Michoacan, Mexico, to the US, potentially impacting US avocado availability, though exports from Jalisco and fruit in transit remain unaffected.
Apple prices continue to face downward pressure following a bumper crop in 2023, which has bolstered inventories. With apples being an alternate-bearing crop, a lighter crop expected in 2024 could lead to a more balanced market.
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Source: www.raboag.com