According to the OECD and FAO, India is on track to overtake China as the main driver of growth in global agricultural demand in the next decade. According to their estimates, global consumption of agricultural products will increase by 1.1%, with almost 94% of this increase attributable to middle- and low-income countries, mainly due to demographic expansion and changes in dietary patterns.
India and Southeast Asia will account for 31% of this increase in demand. Estimates are that by 2033, India's plant production, livestock, and fishing will grow by 20.2%, 41%, and 16%, respectively. China will continue to be the largest agricultural market but its share in the additional consumption of primary sector products is expected to decrease significantly, from 28% in the last decade to 12% by 2033.
Sub-Saharan Africa will also play an important role, contributing 18% to the increase in demand, driven by an annual population growth of 2.40% between 2024 and 2033. Globally, primary sector production is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.1% over the next ten years. Crops, livestock, and fisheries are expected to increase by 1%, 1.3%, and 1.1%, respectively, mainly because of yield improvements.
Trade in agricultural products is expected to increase by 1% annually, keeping the relative weight of exports constant. Despite the price increases experienced between 2020 and 2022, a downward trend in prices is expected in the short and medium term, influenced by a continuous improvement in productivity. However, the authors of the report warn that this trend could be affected by other factors, such as transport costs, currency prices, trade policies, and the integration of local markets with international trade.
Source: efeagro.com