The 2024 California Almond Objective Measurement Report forecasts that 2.8 billion pounds of almonds will be harvested this fall. If so, the 2024 crop would be the third-largest on record and 13 percent larger than the crop produced last year. The increase in production is due to a 13-percent year-over-year increase in yield. USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) projects the 2024 almond yield at 2,030 pounds per acre. This yield estimate is higher than the previous two seasons, but close to the 10-year average of 2,111 pounds per acre.
Preliminary 2024 almond bearing acreage is unchanged from a year ago. If the bearing acreage estimate is realized, 2024 will mark the first year since 1995 that almond acreage does not increase year-over-year. In part, a slowdown in almond acreage is due to historically low almond prices that have tightened producers' margins.
Noncitrus fruit outlook
California peaches: production forecast up in 2024
The USDA, NASS May Crop Production forecast for California peach production in 2024 is 510,000 tons, a 6 percent increase from 2023. California is the top peach-producing State, with peaches categorized as either freestone or clingstone varieties. The current 2024 forecast is up for both clingstone peaches (4 percent) and freestone peaches (8 percent) compared to 2023.
On average, about 70 percent of freestone peaches enter the fresh market, while clingstone peaches are grown almost exclusively for the processing market (primarily canned and frozen). A larger California peach crop is expected in 2024 despite a warm winter resulting in the second-lowest chill hour accumulation in the last 50 years. Growers reported abundant fruit set and generally good spring weather conditions. However, persistent high summer temperatures in the Central Valley may negatively impact fruit quality, sizing, and lead to increased fruit drop.
USDA, NASS will release another peach production forecast for California and seven additional States in its August Crop Production report.
California clingstones
The USDA, NASS May forecast for California clingstone peaches is 230,000 tons. This is a 4 percent (9,000-ton) increase from 2023 but is 56 percent below average production volume in 2000–2002. Bearing acreage and production has decreased in the past 20 years. During the same period, real (inflation-adjusted) grower prices increased by approximately 50 percent but have remained relatively flat over the last 9 years (2015–23). Average grower prices during the 2024 season for clingstone peaches are expected to continue this trend. In March 2024, the California Canning Peach Association, the cooperative bargaining association in the industry, reported its ratified 2024 base price agreement with processors at $635 per ton, the same as 2023. According to the Association, canned and plastic-packaged peaches (including mixed fruit products like fruit cocktail) are primarily produced by two processing companies in California.
Click here to read the full report.
Source: ers.usda.gov