Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, forecasts continued fluctuations in the container shipping freight markets until 2025. Despite the reopening of the Suez Canal, disruptions and elevated freight rates are likely to persist. On The Freight Buyers' Club podcast, Jensen discussed the impact of the Red Sea crisis on global shipping capacity, highlighting the potential for ongoing disruptions if a significant portion of the container fleet is rerouted around southern Africa.
Jensen remarked, "If you're a freight buyer, and you want stability, you need to find a new job." He also mentioned that an improvement in the Middle East situation or a cessation of Houthi attacks would not immediately normalize liner networks. An end to the Red Sea crisis could lead to massive port congestion in Europe, further affecting global shipping services.
Looking forward to 2025, Jensen predicts that contract and spot rates might soften if the Suez Canal's operations remain restricted without additional global supply chain shocks. He anticipates a surge in rates around the Chinese New Year but expects the rates during the Q3 peak season not to reach the levels seen in previous years due to an increase in new vessel deliveries.
"Between now and peak season 2025, we will still have a lot of additional vessels that are being delivered," Jensen stated, suggesting a gradual reduction in rates barring unforeseen calamities. He concluded that while rates are expected to rise again in the next peak season, they will not reach the record highs of summer 2024, nor will they plummet to the extremely low levels experienced at the end of 2023.
Source: container-news.com