With the container shipping sector on the brink of a transformation, the current and future dynamics of shipping alliances offer a glimpse into the evolving competitive landscape. At present, the 2M Alliance, comprising Maersk and MSC, holds the forefront in fleet capacity, closely followed by the Ocean Alliance, which includes CMA CGM, COSCO, Evergreen, and OOCL. THE Alliance, featuring Hapag Lloyd, HMM, Yang Ming, and ONE, trails with a notable gap.
Despite an increase in fleet size across the board, the distribution of market share paints a detailed picture. Over the past five years, 2M Alliance has consistently dominated, thanks to the sizable operations of Maersk and MSC. Ocean Alliance has managed to maintain proximity to 2M, albeit with a slight decline in share from 2022 to 2023. Conversely, THE Alliance experienced a minor dip in share from 2021 to 2022 but has stabilized since.
The landscape is set for a significant shift in February 2025, with the emergence of new alliances promising to redefine competitive dynamics. Ocean Alliance is expected to maintain its current lineup and is projected to rise to the leading position in terms of fleet size and market share. In contrast, the newly established Gemini Cooperation, a partnership between Maersk and Hapag Lloyd, is expected to closely challenge Ocean Alliance's supremacy. Gemini has already outlined service network plans set to commence in February 2025.
Meanwhile, MSC is poised to operate predominantly independently, following a spree of newbuildings, with a fleet size that could potentially eclipse that of Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd combined. The Premier Alliance, integrating HMM, Yang Ming, and ONE, is anticipated to rank fourth in fleet size, though its competitive edge is expected to remain robust, bolstered by fleet expansion and strategic partnerships.
The reconfiguration of alliances is forecasted to intensify competition, especially among Ocean Alliance, Gemini, and MSC, as the disparity between top contenders narrows. This reformation heralds a critical juncture in global trade, with substantial implications for fleet distribution and market share dynamics. The period between 2019 and 2024 witnessed steady fleet growth among all alliances, with minor fluctuations. Nevertheless, the advent of new alliances in 2025 is set to amplify the competitive fervor, marking a significant evolution in the maritime sector.
Source: Container News