Even though it's been a bit tricky in the early phase of the new Mexican avocado season, the fruit supply looks good and will stay that way for some time.
The Mexican supply is increasing again following a challenging last season. It was then that Mexico's crop had been experiencing unusual, dry weather with subsequently stressed trees. This brought about the belief that the crop would be short, especially given that the early part of the season had been difficult in getting both the quantities and sizes needed.
However, after tapping local water resources, crop conditions and availability became more normalized. "Though because things were so difficult, many switched sourcing over to Colombia and Peru for June through September," says David Billings of Stonehill Produce Inc. Meanwhile, California also delivered a big boost which led to an upwards revision in June of its original crop estimate. In all, this meant that Mexico was only supplying only about 30 percent of the avocado deal at that time.
Gradual transition
Now the new season for fruit from Mexico is well underway. "However there was no need for Mexico to rush in or for people to chase product. That created a more natural transition and now those other sources for fruit such as California, Peru, and Colombia, are tapering off and Mexico is now coming into its own," says Billings, adding that Mexico is now back up to about 70 percent of the supply.
Even so, the going this year has been slowed by stricter dry matter standards and wetter conditions over the last few months. "So new crop harvest this year is behind last year and we've been operating at about 60 percent of where we were last year in terms of number of hectares harvested, etc. From an estimation and yield standpoint, there's still plenty of fruit to go." Right now Mexico is harvesting its "loca" crop. In Michoacan, growers are less than 40 percent through the crop whereas normally, they would have been through most of it. "This loca crop will continue to be worked in some locations all the way through even into November," says Billings, adding that October is when generally the next phase of the crop, the aventajada, comes on. "I've seen times when they've gone into the aventajada as early as the second half of September. That won't be necessary this year so that too will develop a bit more."
Demand and stability
As for demand, the diversification of sourcing regions for avocados seems to have paid off. "We had five different origins supplying over the last two months and it kept everything pretty much stable. With that kind of stability, the demand just kept going," says Billings. "We're running at a rate for the last two months that is five to seven percent above where we were last year."
However, with the plentiful supply that's anticipated and the timing of plantings, there may be points in the upcoming season when, as Billings says, there will be a lot of growers coming through the door with fruit at the same time. "That will be the challenge on the demand side," he says, adding though that organizations such as Avocados from Mexico are already working on strengthening the association avocados have with football during the college football season (and not just the Super Bowl season).
How about pricing? For the past three months, Mexico has been priced at a premium compared to other growing regions. Now with Mexico ramping up production, prices are gradually coming down to where the other origins had been priced.
For more information:
David Billings
Stonehill Produce Inc.
Tel: +1 (949) 488-9613
[email protected]
www.stonehillproduce.com