Australia's table grape production is forecast to increase to 230,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, the second largest on record, from an estimated 195,000 MT in MY 2023/24. This high level is primarily due to excellent seasonal conditions so far and the prospect of continued favorable seasonal conditions through to the end of harvest. These conditions will likely produce high-quality table grapes in the forecast year and increase the volume supply of suitable for the export market. The boost in production and quality is forecast to result in the third-highest export result on record of 135,000 MT for MY 2024/25. Additionally, the forecast production growth is expected to support a 10 percent boost in domestic consumption for MY 2024/25.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Australia's table grape production is expected to increase to a near-record 230,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 from an estimated 195,000 MT in MY 2023/24. This increase is primarily driven by favorable weather conditions, including excellent cold chill hours and unusually warm maximum temperatures, resulting in the strongest bud burst in recent years. Assuming these favorable seasonal conditions continue to the end of the harvest, a substantial table grape crop is expected for MY 2024/25. These optimal growing conditions, combined with the anticipation of favorable conditions through harvest are expected to enhance the quality of table grapes, leading to an increase the volume suitable for the export market. Consequently, exports are anticipated to reach 135,000 MT, Australia's third highest on record in MY 2024/25. China continues to be a key market for Australian table grapes despite a reduction in its import demand by more than of 50 percent over the past five years due to increasing domestic production. Nevertheless, Australia's nearer proximity to China and high-quality table grape production position the industry favorably against South American competitors. The forecast production growth is expected to support a 10 percent boost in consumption for MY 2024/25. However, consumption as a proportion of production is anticipated to decline as a greater volume of higher-quality grapes is expected to be channeled toward the export market.
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