Grapefruit still seems to be too bitter for mostly younger people. The overall sales trend shows a decline in grapefruit consumption as it is mostly enjoyed by older people. South Africa's grapefruit season has just ended. A lot more fruit was sent to China, where there was good demand. The Spanish grapefruit season has started almost two weeks earlier than usual and with the prospect of around a 15% increase in the production.
In the Netherlands traders ask if there's a recovery in the grapefruit market after years of declining demand? They note demand is down in a traditionally strong market like France. Israel's grapefruit season is well underway with a similar season to last year expected, with a reduction in volumes noted each season. In Germany there is low demand with high prices for grapefruit. Italy has a normal grapefruit crop in line with last season. In Belgium grapefruit is decreasing in popularity among Belgian youngsters. In France South African grapefruit dominates the market.
The United States is seeing strong demand for grapefruit post-Hurricane Milton. Following last month's (October) Hurricane Milton in Florida, the grapefruit supply will be tighter this season. Trees in the crop under protective screens in groves were unharmed.
South Africa: Grapefruit exports ended, large increase to China
South African grapefruit exports stopped weeks ago, notching up a large increase in its trade with China whose market share in this category has increased from 68% last year to 84% in 2024. The amount of grapefruit sent to China is still around a million fewer than in 2022, and everywhere else the market segment has reduced as people eat fewer grapefruit.
The grapefruit campaign had a slightly longer tail than previous years, unlike most other citrus categories, and the spread to all markets was satisfactory, says a trader in the late-season Eastern Cape grapefruit. Taiwan and Italy, sixth and seventh largest grapefruit buyers respectively, are countries that take smaller fruit. Besides exports, the domestic grapefruit juice price is better than usual, competing with local fresh sales.
Spain: Started two weeks earlier, prospect of a 15% increase in production
The Spanish grapefruit season is already underway. It has started almost two weeks earlier than usual and with the prospect of an increase in the production. Due to the limited supply from South Africa at this time of the year, the demand has been high from the get-go and sales are off to a good start. "The season kicked off with very good organoleptic properties, such as you'd expect to see on the third week of harvesting, when the fruit is usually riper," says the main grower and exporter in Spain.
According to official estimates the grapefruit production is expected to increase by around 15% in the 2024/2025 campaign. The production is recovering in Andalusia, especially in Seville and Cordoba, which recorded drops last year due to the drought. The spring rains have led to an increase in the production and, since there are more pieces per tree, sizes are generally smaller. In the Valencian Community, the production has remained stable, while in Murcia, despite yields being 20% lower, it seems that the volume will increase thanks to new plantations becoming productive. In Murcia, grapefruit sizes will generally be large, as the amount of fruits per tree has fallen after a very productive campaign last year.
The season has started well on a commercial level, with good demand, since there is hardly any supply from overseas. There are still some batches of grapefruit from South Africa, but very small ones, as the majority of large European retail chains have already made the switch to the Spanish production. Spain usually overlaps with the end of the South African season, but this year the market is emptier and that's beneficial for Spanish exporters. "I don't remember a start to the Spanish grapefruit season as good as this one," says the grower and exporter.
Due to the war in the Middle East, in which Israel is involved, grapefruit sales are down in France, where there's a high presence of Arab buyers in wholesale markets. This has led to an increase in the demand for Spanish grapefruit from France, where it has been gaining market share since last year. There has also been a more limited supply of Turkish grapefruit in Germany, which allowed Spanish grapefruit sales to grow last season.
Netherlands: Recovery in the grapefruit market after years of declining demand?
The demand for grapefruit has been steadily declining in Europe over the years. According to Dutch importers, this trend is even noticeable in France, which has traditionally been a significant market for grapefruit. As a result, imports from South Africa were at a considerably lower level this season, and prices have not been significantly high. "We see that grapefruit is typically a product for the older generation; the younger generation consumes much less grapefruit," states one importer.
On the other hand, a colleague notes a resurgence in demand. "The supply from South Africa had dried up, but we are now receiving excellent quality from the mountains in Turkey. Grapefruit is arriving on a favorable market. The grapefruit market seemed to be in decline over the last ten years, but it is now starting to recover. In Spain, many new grapefruit fields are currently being planted. The growing focus on healthy eating is significantly boosting the consumption of grapefruit and lemons."
Importers also highlight the strong demand for grapefruit from China, where it is primarily used in juices. In Europe, there is an increasing trend of incorporating grapefruit into various juice products.
Belgium: Grapefruit decreasing in popularity among Belgian youngsters
"It's not that busy on the grapefruit market", a Belgian trader says. "There are limited volumes coming from Israel. In addition, Turkey is starting up and we also see some Spanish product appearing on the market. So there are some volumes, but demand is not booming. Grapefruit has lost popularity in Belgium in recent years. Especially among the youth, people seem to appreciate the flavour less and less. Indeed, grapefruit has several uses, but it is not comparable to an orange, which you easily eat on the spot. We see that it is a volatile market, where a difference in volumes is quickly reflected in prices, which are therefore not so high now."
France: South African grapefruit dominates the market
Currently on the French market there are grapefruit from Israel, a few from Spain and the majority from South Africa, "an origin that is becoming increasingly important in the citrus sector in general thanks to new plantings". Demand is good at this time of year, according to the trader, and prices are good but "not crazy". "The market is very volatile for a product like this", notes the trader.
Israel: Grapefruit season well underway
The grapefruits production portion in Israel is about 30% of the total citrus production, consisting mainly of red grapefruits. The total grapefruits production in the last season 2023/2024 was 144,000 tons. These grapefruits were mainly destined for the industry, 98,000 tons, which is 68%. About 33,000 tons, or 23%, was for export and the final 13,000 tons, 9%, was produced for the local market. The production of grapefruits for Israel totalled at 144,000 tons this season, continuing the reduction of production compared to the previous season. As 2022/2023 had an Israeli production of 155,000 tons where 2021/2022 had a production of 175,000 tons.
The reduction of the citrus production, specifically the grapefruit production, and export activities were influenced by the war that was started in the region last year. This created a lack of manpower in the fields, plantation and in the packing houses. The Local Currency rates (the NIS) compared to the Euro and to the US$ were higher than the yearly average and that helped to reduce the dropping in the generated revenue from the lower production this year.
An Israeli exporter notes: "Prices are not that high, because there's still grapefruit from South Africa in the market. Prices are not as high as in the past two years. The pace of sales is regular."
While most of Israel's grapefruit is exported to Europe, shipments to Asia started from this week. However, there is some concern of the impact of longer shipping due to the rebel attacks in the Red Sea affecting passage through the Suez Canal. The fruit has to go on a longer journey that takes 50-60 days around the Cape of Good Hope to reach Asian markets, which will eventually impact the arrival quality of the fruit, like last year. An exporter noted they are taking special care to pack the best quality fruit. "Hopefully, it will arrive in good condition for us to declare the exports a success in the East."
Germany: Low demand, high prices for grapefruit
Currently, Spanish Ruby Red grapefruits still dominate the supply in Germany. Demand is relatively low and prices are relatively high. The first shipments from Turkey are also expected in late November-early December. "Here we are expecting a good season for the time being. Grapefruit has been a fairly stable commodity in recent years without major outliers up or down. However, we do see that sales volumes are significantly lower than a few years ago," notes an importer.
Italy: Normal crop with pricing in line with last year
The marketing campaign for the Star Ruby grapefruit in Calabria has already begun. The harvest started at least a week earlier than last year, around 10 October, reports a producer organisation. The size of the Star Ruby grapefruit is generally adequate and uniform, with an average fruit weight of around 300 grams. The fruit is aesthetically pleasing, with a deep red colour and very juicy flesh. This year's crop can be described as 'normal': more or less 500-600 tonnes'.
The major Italian supermarket chains are the main target market for the producer organisation's product. The prices of the first sales are in line with those of the last campaign, even though there is strong international competition for red grapefruit. In fact, the product is available on the market 365 days a year, with different origins. We are only able to supply it during the winter months, October-December, arriving in January, and in our marketing window we are able to take advantage of any foreign product that is present".
According to data from GfK | YouGov, 11% of Italian households have bought grapefruit in the last 12 months. Purchase channels are concentrated in supermarkets and discounters.
United States: Strong demand for grapefruit post-Hurricane Milton
Following last month's (October) Hurricane Milton in Florida, the grapefruit supply will be tighter this season. That said, in Florida while production of citrus under protective screens (C.U.P.S.) groves, which is home to annually growing production, was directly impacted by the hurricane, the trees in the crop were unharmed. The eating quality of grapefruit is strong with no impacts on the fruit from the hurricane. The Florida crop is smaller this year with fruit sizing smaller. Fruit is expected to be available into March.
In other regions, Texas also has grapefruit available. California typically starts a bit later on grapefruit and more movement might not be seen until after the New Year going into the springtime, which is when they start peaking. Mexico has small volumes entering the market right now and will continue ramping up towards the holiday season.
With less supply, demand is strong and in Florida particularly, demand is exceeding supply at this point across the range of sizes. This is leaving pricing stronger than this time last year–a direct reflection of supply and demand.
Next week's topic: Peppers