Post estimates China's production of apples, pears, and table grapes to increase moderately to 48 MMT, 20.2 MMT, and 14.2 MMT, respectively, in MY 2024/25. Substituted by domestic counterparts, grape imports are expected to further decline. Apple imports are likely to rebound, as diverse varieties on the world market keep attracting Chinese consumers. Fruit exports will continue increasing to neighboring countries given improved quality and competitive prices of fruit and logistical costs. U.S. market share in China's highly competitive fruit market continues to backslide, because of advancements in domestic production and quality and competition with countercyclical producers with tariff rate advantages. It is essential to reinforce the luxury branding of U.S. fruit products and to invest in marketing campaigns that introduce new varieties.
Post estimates China's apple production at 48 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (July-June), an increase of slightly more than 3 percent from the revised Post estimate for MY 2023/24. Except for rainfall during flowering and higher summer temperatures in some production areas, there have been no major weather abnormalities so far in 2024, which is the main cause of apple production growth. Good weather, and productivity increases from higher-yielding varieties and horticultural practices, combined with the removal of older low-yielding trees more than offset moderate declines in planted areas. The apple crop in Gansu, the third largest producing province, is recovering from MY 2023/24 when spring frosts seriously affected fruit set.
During a crop tour in Shaanxi and Shanxi, the first and fourth largest apple producers, Post observed that these two provinces will likely harvest fewer apples this year as they are encountering a low-bearing year. Furthermore, there are fewer apple trees in production, which will also impact those provinces' production. Apple crops in other major producing provinces, such as Hebei and Sichuan, are likely to improve slightly. Meanwhile, apple quality has generally improved from a year ago given favorable growing conditions in most production areas. Traders report that the share of high-grade apples will greatly increase from the previous year. Post-revised the production estimate upwards in line with industry expectations. Post expects the country's apple production to remain relatively stable in the future.
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