The World Citrus Organisation (WCO) has published its annual northern hemisphere citrus forecast for the 2024-25 citrus season. The Forecast was unveiled during the 2024-2025 Northern Hemisphere Citrus Forecast Outlook event, held on 15 November. This year's Forecast includes data from Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Morocco, Spain, Tunisia, Turkey, the United States, and, for the first time, Portugal. Citrus production for the 2024-25 season is projected to reach 27.297.216 T, marking an 8.73% decrease compared to the previous season. The Forecast is also 5.88% lower than the average of the past four seasons.
WCO Secretary General Philippe Binard explained the results: "The market insights we received indicate a decrease from last year's high volumes. This is mainly driven by Turkey returning to regular production levels after last season's record figures, as well as Egypt's expected decrease." He further noted: "Climatic issues, such as late frost, drought, heat waves, or new pests and diseases, are constant threats to the quality, coloring, or harvest dates for citrus production. The market will continue to be affected by geopolitical instability, while consumer demand is under pressure due to inflation and reduced purchasing power."
Looking at country-specific figures, Spain's citrus production is projected at 6.18 MT, down by 3.30% from the previous season, with a 21.01% decrease in lemons following last year's record season. Despite dramatic weather events, Spain's overall supply remains stable. Italy's production is expected to decline by 12.32% to 2.77 MT, with a significant 17.51% drop in orange production, while Greece remains stable at 1.09 MT. In other Mediterranean countries, Turkey's production is forecasted to drop by 17.57% to 4.95 MT, returning to normal levels after last season's record figures. Egypt's production is also expected to decrease significantly, down 19.55% to 4.35 MT. Conversely, Morocco's production is anticipated to grow to 2.14 MT, an increase of 11.97%. Israel's production is also set to recover, with an estimated increase of 18.50% to 0.56 MT. Portugal, contributing to the Forecast for the first time, anticipates a 3.37% decline, totaling 0.38 MT. Meanwhile, the United States production is projected to shrink by 4.28% to 4.55 MT, continuing a downward trend with an 11.52% decrease compared to the average of previous seasons.
Philippe Binard added: "WCO is also setting some trends for the expected utilization of citrus for the upcoming season. The Northern Hemisphere citrus exports will decrease by 8.94% compared to last season to 8.38 MT, while processing will decline to 5.16 MT (-4.15%), leaving 13.76 MT for domestic sales (-10.21%)." Next April, the WCO will release the 2025 production and export forecast for the Southern Hemisphere.
For more information:
Philippe Binard
World Citrus Organisation
Tel: +32 (0)2 777 15 80
Email: [email protected]
www.worldcitrusorganisation.org