The garlic supply chain faces a few challenges with lower and slower stock movement from major producers like China and Spain. This deficit has driven prices up, with importers emphasizing quality as a key market differentiator. South American supply comes from Peru, Argentina and Chile. Prices are high in Europe with variable demand from countries in the union, ranging from high to below average in Germany for example. Italy's in sowing mode, with imports dominating at the moment. The Netherlands has highly priced Chinese garlic coming in. France is seeing good garlic demand.
North America will see supply coming from Argentina. In South Africa garlic prices are under pressure due to high volumes from local and overseas suppliers.
Peru: Sustained growth with focus on quality and new markets
The Peruvian garlic campaign has been characterized by a 30-40% increase in prices compared to the previous year. This rise was driven by a reduced cultivated area (7,000 hectares compared to the usual 10,000) and higher productivity due to La Niña, which provided cold conditions ideal for cultivation. The main export destinations have been Mexico, the United States, and Australia, with an average price of $37 per 10-kg box, up from $25 last year. Peruvian garlic quality has been praised, and local companies are investing in modern processing facilities to strengthen competitiveness.
Chile: Strategic supplier in key commercial windows
Chile has reported improved garlic quality this year, attributed to an increase in chilling hours (from 400 last year to over 800 this year), although yields decreased by 10%. Prices have risen by 40% compared to last year, ranging from $3.20 to $3.50 per kilogram. Mexico remains the primary destination market, with shipments focused on filling the commercial gap from December to March when Mexican garlic is unavailable. Chile also benefits from less restrictive phytosanitary measures than competitors like Argentina, further solidifying its market position.
Argentina: Adjusting to economic and climate challenges
Argentina faces significant challenges due to high temperatures and production costs. While prices have increased by 15% to 20%, production decreased by 20-30% due to adverse climatic conditions. Brazil is its main market, absorbing 80% of exports. Local economic issues and stringent export regulations to Mexico, such as the use of maleic hydrazide, have increased costs. However, the sector is improving its processes, including cold storage, to extend product availability.
China: Recent garlic market demand slightly lower than the same period last year
July and August are peak months for Chinese garlic exports, but this year is different. The garlic export market during July and August this year was performing weakly, with fewer orders than in previous years.
The quality of the new garlic crop this year is excellent in terms of color, purity, and dryness, but the yield of large-sized garlic is lower. High shipping costs and unstable shipping schedules this year delayed garlic arrivals at ports, hindering market digestion. This is particularly evident on the Eastern European route.
Regarding current market demand, Central and South America are relatively stable, while West and North Africa have fewer orders due to high shipping costs. The export volume has dropped by at least 30% compared to previous years.
Although garlic prices fell recently, they have now stabilized and are showing an upward trend. As the new garlic begins to be stored in warehouses, the price of the garlics which are not stored will rise as supply decreases.
Italy: Good local 2024 garlic harvest
The Italian garlic market is not experiencing any particular problems at the beginning of December. Refrigerated garlic is being sold in Italy, with scarce quantities available due to the lower quantity produced in the last campaign. "While the Southern Hemisphere is in harvest mode, we in the Northern Hemisphere are in sowing mode. According to the forecasts, the quantities should be slightly higher than last year," says a trader from southern Italy. "At the moment, sowing has finished in the southern regions of Italy. In the north there have been some problems due to bad weather and they will finish in the next few weeks."
In Europe, garlic is available from Spain and China at high prices. "The quantities available may seem small, but they are certainly higher than last year. In fact, with the same quantity in stock, there is certainly a higher yield this year because of the good quality in stock; last year the post-processing yields were down to around 40-50%. At the moment we are around 70-80%," the trader reports. "Argentina, the most representative producer in the Southern Hemisphere, will soon be ready for the harvest, which is expected to be of good quality, weather permitting. We are waiting to see the prices of the Argentinean and Chilean product that will be ready for shipment by the end of December".
A garlic producer and distributor from southern Italy confirms: "The Spanish white garlic campaign looks positive this year. Compared to last year, current prices have risen by around 10-15%, thanks to a much higher product quality than last season. Demand is also good and consumption is positive".
"The Italian 2024 production had on average a good quantitative yield and shows very good quality characteristics," says an operator who manages 130 hectares in northern Italy. The production of the consortium of which he is a member is all certified and has a recognisable brand, so retail sales are between €15 and €19/kg. "In Italy, domestic production does not meet demand, so imports are essential. At the moment, the general supply is not very good: Spain has had unfavourable weather conditions and France does not export much. In some years, Chinese garlic is also available, but it is of a lower quality and at a lower price than local garlic".
Netherlands: Garlic prices in China continue to rise
According to a Dutch importer, the garlic market has been quite interesting this year. "Prices in China have been steadily increasing since the start of the season. China has had a very good harvest in terms of quality, but the sizes are smaller than usual. Most of the garlic is in the 50 to 55 mm range. The price difference between 50+ and 55+ has never been this large before. Spain has a large harvest in terms of size, but they are also facing significant quality issues," says the trader, who remains reasonably optimistic about the second half of the season.
Germany: Below average garlic demand
The German market is currently dominated by goods from China, Spain and France. "Lautrec garlic is always very popular at this time of year. Due to the quality problems and increased rejects, this product is unfortunately quite scarce and expensive this year." As for standard goods from China and Spain, demand is currently somewhat below average and it is hoped that sales will pick up a bit more towards Christmas.
Spain: Low volumes of local garlic limit sales operations outside of contracts
Spanish garlic stocks are currently in the middle of their cycle, with good keeping quality in the chambers and just enough volumes to be able to finish the campaign, given the significant reduction in cultivation area this year.
"Most Spanish companies are limiting sales operations to the open market, outside the established supply contracts, due to the available volumes," says a representative of the sector. It should be recalled that in 2024 the area has fallen again compared to the previous season, around -14% compared to 2023, being more accentuated this decline in purple garlic, which for the first time has fallen below 40% of the total cultivated area. This drop in area is in addition to last year's decline of 17%, representing a total drop in the last two years of more than 30% compared to the area cultivated in 2022.
Sales are quiet and the sector prefers to maintain its stocks. "There is availability of garlic from third countries such as Egypt, Turkey etc. But the prices offered are very high, so very little garlic is being imported into Spain and Europe, in general," says the representative.
France: Good garlic demand in market
French companies' stocks of preserved garlic are dwindling by the day. There's a little left, but not a lot. Over the coming weeks and months, we're likely to run into a deficit, especially as Spain has a much smaller stock than in other years. Imports are therefore inevitable.
As far as quality is concerned, it varies greatly from batch to batch. Some products are evolving very badly, but others are very good. It really depends on the batch. Quality fluctuates in line with prices. Here too, depending on quality, you can have very cheap garlic or garlic sold at a high price. But generally speaking, as the market is in deficit, demand is relatively good and the market is buoyant.
North America: Argentinian garlic to offer supply relief
Garlic supply in North America is a tale of two markets: retail strictly taking non-Chinese garlic and the Chinese market. Garlic supply that isn't coming out of Asia is quite tight. There wasn't as much garlic from Mexico and the quality out of Spain was mixed this year with high prices. Argentina though is expected to start shipping this week.
Domestically there is some California supply available but those also have stronger pricing. Garlic from China has also seen strong pricing given freight costs have increased and a lot of this started when there were the East Coast port problems – since then, prices on Chinese garlic have been going up and they've stayed high.
Garlic demand has softened though it will ramp again before Christmas and New Year's. Along with higher freight costs, other challenges include the East & West Coast ports, which post-strike, still have some lingering issues. There are also concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs – 25 percent on imports on the day he's inaugurated, January 20th, and the potential 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports.
South Africa: Prices under pressure
Garlic prices are under pressure with high volumes on the market. Political turmoil in Mozambique leading to border closures have kept large garlic buyers off the market, and traders have felt their absence.
The average price is R44 (2.3 euros) per kilogram on the municipal markets. South African garlic is finding it difficult to compete with Chinese, Spanish, Argentine garlic, specifically in the area of clove size, and retailers prefer the large bulbs of imported garlic. An anti-dumping tariff on Chinese garlic has been in place for a couple of years and a sunset review of the tariff is slated for 2027.
Egypt: Planted garlic area doubled
Following the usual cyclicality of garlic acreage, and after a limited area last season, growers have this year doubled the area of garlic in Egypt. One grower says, "Last season was very good, with very high local and international demand. As a result, many growers have decided to grow garlic this season.
Doubling the acreage means a return to normal production since, last season, garlic acreage in Egypt was halved on the season before. The next season starts in March and growers expect high demand. To supply the Egyptian market, importers are sourcing garlic from China. One importer says, "Chinese prices are currently good, and we're able to import good sizes and shapes of garlic, although the taste is less marked than Egyptian garlic, but the local market accepts it."
Next week's topic: Grapes