The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) has analyzed the repercussions of the European Union's proposed adjustments to maximum residue levels (MRLs) on South African agriculture, with a focus on table grapes, among other crops. These changes are part of the EU's Green Deal initiative, aimed at reducing the presence of certain chemicals in food products. The study predicts a considerable downturn in the table grape sector, highlighting a potential contraction in export-quality production and a subsequent decline in profitability.
Table grapes, a key export from South Africa to the EU, are forecasted to experience the most pronounced impact. The report identifies dimetomorph, a fungicide essential for combating downy mildew, as a significant point of concern. The anticipated outcome over the next decade includes a 15% reduction in export-quality yields in high disease prevalence regions and a 5% decrease in the Orange River area. Moreover, the area under table grape cultivation could see a 12% reduction, with profits potentially halving, dependent on the scale of export-quality yield loss and increased production costs.
Approximately 90% of South Africa's table grape harvest is exported, with over half destined for the EU market. The study suggests that diverting exports from the EU to other markets could lead to a 9% price hike in the EU and a 38% price drop in alternative markets. Comparatively, a 15% reduction in EU exports is deemed less detrimental than facing a 38% decrease in prices in non-EU markets.
The analysis also touches on other crops such as pome fruits and citrus, outlining potential losses in hectares and shifts in market strategies due to the EU's proposed regulations. CropLife SA, which funded the BFAP research, is part of ongoing diplomatic efforts to negotiate the African Localized Green Transition as an alternative approach to mitigate the adverse effects of the Green Deal.
Source: freight news