The 2024-2025 Florida all-orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes, down 20 percent from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 33 percent less than last season's final production.
The forecast consists of 5.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to "average," "minimum," and "maximum" refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole.
Non-Valencia oranges: 5.00 million boxes
The forecast of non-Valencia production is 5.00 million boxes, down 1.00 million boxes from the October forecast. Final fruit size is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is 150,000 boxes, comprising 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.
Valencia oranges: 7.00 million boxes
The forecast for Valencia production is 7.00 million boxes, down 2.00 million boxes from October. Current fruit size is average and is projected to be average at harvest. Current droppage is projected to be above the maximum at harvest.
All grapefruit: 1.20 million boxes
The forecast for all grapefruit production is 1.20 million boxes, down 200,000 boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 33 percent less than last season's final production.
Red grapefruit:
At 1.05 million boxes, the red grapefruit forecast is lowered by 150,000 boxes from the October forecast. Fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average, and droppage is projected to be above the maximum.
White Grapefruit: The white grapefruit forecast is down 50,000 boxes to 150,000 boxes. The projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is above average, and projected droppage is above average.
Lemons: 500,000 Boxes
The forecast of lemons is 500,000 boxes, carried over from the October forecast.
Tangerines and mandarins: 350,000 boxes
The forecast for tangerines and mandarins is 350,000 boxes, down 50,000 boxes from the October forecast. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.
Reliability
To assist users in evaluating the reliability of the December 1 Florida production forecasts, the "Root Mean Square Error," a statistical measure based on past performance, is computed. The deviation between the December 1 production forecast and the final estimate is expressed as a percentage of the final estimate.
The average of squared percentage deviations for the latest 20-year period is computed. The square root of the average becomes statistically the "Root Mean Square Error."
To view the full report, click here.
For more information:
USDA
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