The U.S. apple crop forecast is down in production volume compared to last year and so are holdings. As of December 1, 2024, production volume is expected to exceed 167 million fresh cases across all production regions in the country. Compared to last year's record crop, this is a decrease of 3.4 percent. Current holdings are also down by over seven percent compared to last year, but they are 13 percent above the three-year average. "As always, the devil is in the details," says Don Roper with Honeybear Brands. "When breaking down the storage report variety by variety and region by region, differing trends become quickly visible."
Big production increase for Cosmic Crisp
The biggest jump in volume is coming from Cosmic Crisp. This is no surprise given the amount of new acreage that has come into production in the past few years. Compared to last year at this time, holdings have increased by 70 percent. "This will lead to significant promotion and export opportunities throughout the marketing window for Cosmic Crisp, which will stretch all the way to November next year," commented Roper. He is hopeful strong retail promotions will generate broader acceptance and distribution of this key variety. Outside the U.S., Cosmic Crisp is also becoming more and more popular. "This variety has a good fit in Asian markets as it is a big red sweet apple that travels and stores exceptionally well." Export markets are being developed in parallel with continued market development in the U.S.
For legacy varieties like Gala, Cripps Pink, Granny Smith, Fuji, Red Delicious and Golden Delicious, overall holdings are in good shape. Out of all these varieties, Granny Smith, Fuji and Cripps Pink/Pink Lady are experiencing stronger positions with production being well over their three-year average.
Honeycrisp holdings down significantly
Honeycrisp continues to garner the most attention and analysis from both grower and retailer standpoint. "The crop is significantly smaller compared to last year with holdings in Washington, the largest growing state, down nearly 38 percent compared to last year's record crop." Compared to the three-year production average, Washington stocks are down approximately 17 percent. Looking across all production regions in the U.S., the story is a bit different. In the Midwest that grows about eight percent of U.S. apple production, Honeycrisp holdings are down nearly 40 percent, and the expectations are for supply to be limited by late spring. "This will put additional pressure on Washington holdings as retailers will switch supply regions for supply assurance," mentioned Roper. In the Northeast, responsible for 11 percent of U.S. apple volume, the Honeycrisp crop did not experience any significant loss in production versus the prior year, so holdings for the most part are trending the same as prior years. While there appear to be good supplies, strong distribution and promotions are quickly putting Honeycrisp in a shorter position, resulting in price increases over last year.
Opportunities for new varieties to enter the shelves
Honeycrisp has created a very strong following across the country and the variety will continue to make it into the basket, even at a higher price. "Honeycrisp is expected to continue to drive sales due to super loyal consumers and high customer affinity," said Roper. For retailers, this will result in more promotional opportunities with legacy varieties as well as some of the new high-flavor varieties that entered the market in recent years, including Envy, SugarBee, Pazazz, Wild Twist, Cosmic Crisp, and Evercrisp. A combination of strong industry promotional programs and retailers slotting the right variety at its peak flavor window, offers an opportunity to attract new consumers to these next generation varieties that exhibit distinctive flavorful eating experiences. "This is an opportunity for these varieties and a chance for retailers to broaden their product reach with consumers. Price sensitive customers will shift to the apple varieties that are being offered at lower promotion prices. They don't have the strongest affinity to Honeycrisp and are more concerned how to stretch their purchasing dollar."
The high price of Honeycrisp apples provides an opportunity for other varieties like Honeymoon.
All in all, the overall apple crop is down versus last year, but there are still great options for promotion and sales growth this season. The price of Honeycrisp will steadily increase as the industry strives to keep supply in concert with demand. "However, strong supplies of newer high-flavor varieties and stable volumes of legacy varieties will give the industry more than enough tools and options to drive apple category growth."
For more information:
Don Roper
Honeybear Brands
[email protected]
www.honeybearbrands.com