It was a very smooth harvest of California walnuts this past fall, but not in a positive way. "We finished quickly because statewide, the crop is down 28 to 30 percent over last year," says Bill Carriere with Carriere Family Farms. He notes that the state came off a record crop in 2023. Nevertheless, the drop in production volume is painful. "As an industry, we didn't see this sharp drop coming," Carriere adds. California Agricultural Production Statistics reported their crop survey in September, and they estimated the crop volume to be down from 824,000 tons in 2023 to 670,000 tons this year. "At first, we didn't believe production would be down that much. However, a few weeks into harvest, we realized it was going to be even lower than the survey's estimate." The final number will be between 580,000 and 600,000 tons. With the smaller crop, demand has been brisk. Looking ahead, the industry anticipates selling the entire inventory by September in time for the 2025 harvest and shipments.
It's uncertain what caused the downfall in production, but the industry suspects it has to do with a combination of low chill hours, a hot spell in the summer, and some Pistillate Flower Abortion (PFA), which is the loss of nut-producing pistillate flowers during bloom. PFA could be caused by an excessive pollen load. The conditions during bloom are critical and they may not have been ideal this past spring.
Price increase
Wholesale prices have doubled as a result of short supply. Last year, grower prices for the main variety, Chandler, averaged between $0.40 - $0.45/lb. and this year, growers should receive $1.00/lb. or more for good quality. For growers, the price increase almost makes up for the loss in yield, but after several challenging seasons with low prices, they needed more than that. In recent years, about 50,000 to 60,000 acres of walnut trees have been removed in California as they've been loss making. "Prices have been so depressed that we haven't seen a lot of new plantings," shares Carriere. Instead, growers have shifted to other crops."
Demand exceeds supply
In recent years, the California walnut industry put a lot of emphasis on increasing consumption and is seeing success. Due to the nutritional benefits of walnuts, consumer demand is growing. "We've been experiencing very good demand, both domestically and overseas. However, this season there is not enough product to satisfy demand." In a normal year, about one-third of production volume stays in the U.S. market and two-thirds is exported. Due to low supply, a larger share is expected to stay in the domestic market this season. Outside the U.S., California walnuts find their way into many countries around the globe. "Germany is the number one importer, but our company sells to at least 25 different countries," says Carriere. Lower supply limits export opportunities and a strong U.S. dollar doesn't help either. "However, the threat of tariffs is a bigger issue for us. If the U.S. installs tariffs on import products, there is a valid concern for retaliations." Another concern is the return of port strikes on the East Coast as of January 15. While a wage increase was negotiated for port workers back in October, automation wasn't discussed. The Union wants to block automation technology as they claim automation kills jobs. "Our ports are still very inefficient. In Europe and Asia, ports are all automated and therefore operate much more efficiently." According to The Container Port Performance Index 2023, the port of Philadelphia is the most efficient port in the U.S, ranking only 55th in an overview of the Top 100 most efficient ports in the world. The port of Oakland, where the majority of walnuts are shipped from, ranks 397.
Competition from Chile and China
Although California walnuts are recognized for their high quality, there's competition from other markets. Chile is the main competitor, but the South American country also experienced a light crop during their season back in May. China is another main competitor, sending a lot of nuts to the Middle East and Turkey and even some to Europe. "Chinese walnuts are bigger and much cheaper compared to California walnuts, but we continue to differentiate by offering a high-quality product."
For more information:
Bill Carriere
Carriere Family Farms
Tel: (+1) 530-934-8200
[email protected]
www.carrierefarms.com