In Marketing Year (MY) 2024/25 growers in South Africa are forecast to divert more citrus volumes towards processing as elevated prices make juicing a lower-risk alternative. The production of orange, grapefruit, tangerine/mandarin, and lemon in MY 2024/25 is forecast to increase, assuming normal weather conditions, new trees coming into production, and sufficient water for irrigation. Export volumes of grapefruit, lemon, and tangerine/mandarin in MY 2024/25 are forecast to increase due to improved production of export-quality fruit. Domestic consumption of orange juice is forecast to decrease slightly on increased prices. South Africa is estimated to have exported record quantities of grapefruit to the United States in MY 2023/24.
Oranges:
The area under orange production is forecast to increase by one percent to 44,500 MT in MY 2024/25 on increased Valencia tree orders following higher-than-usual juicing prices. Production of oranges in MY 2024/25 is forecast to grow by one percent to 1.69 million Metric Tons (MMT) with improved quality compared to the MY 2023/24 harvest which was affected by adverse weather. Growers are expected to divert some export fruit towards processing due to elevated juice prices. Therefore, Post forecasts that exports will shrink by one percent to 1.10 MMT in MY 2024/25.
Grapefruit:
Area under grapefruit has been shrinking with budwood sales at their lowest according to the MY 2022/23 tree census, reflecting a downward trend in global consumption. Post forecasts that the area under production in MY 2024/25 will decrease by one percent to 7,900 ha from MY 2023/24. Production MY 2024/25 is expected to increase by one percent to 425,000 MT in normal weather conditions. The slight increase in production is forecast to translate into increased export supply. Growers are expected to increase processing volumes supply due to higher than usual prices. South Africa is estimated to export record grapefruit volumes to the United States in MY 2023/24 based on a 23 percent year-to-date (February-October 2024) hike.
Tangerines/Mandarins:
Post forecasts that tangerines/mandarins (categorized in South Africa as "soft citrus") production in MY 2024/25 will increase by three percent to 790,000 MT on normal weather conditions and young trees coming into full production. Domestic consumption is expected to increase by two percent to 48,000 MT in MY 2024/25 on increased production and a growing domestic demand. Exports are forecast to improve by three percent to 674,000 MT on increased production.
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