Mandarin production in Japan continues to decline because of high summer temperatures, in addition to a decreasing number of farmers and planted acreage. Such factors are not anticipated to markedly increase citrus imports from the United States because of the sustained weak Japanese yen and inflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. The Japanese market is forecasted to continue experiencing orange juice shortages because of a lack of supply and reduced purchasing power for Japanese consumers.
Crop area and production
Mandarin citrus production in Japan is comprised of two varieties; one is Satsuma mandarin called "unshu mikan" and the other is "chubankan." The harvested area and production of unshu has been on a continuous decline since peaking in 1975. This is partially because of Japan's Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF) efforts to reduce production to prevent overproduction and maintain sufficient market prices to secure farmers' incomes. Following MAFF termination of production control efforts, the ministry instead started announcing production estimates to provide information to the Japanese market. For the marketing year (MY) 2024/25, MAFF has estimated 702,000 MT of unshu production in Japan. However, because of elevated summertime temperatures, growers and industry participants believe that MY 2024/25 production will be lower than expected. Accordingly, FAS/Tokyo estimates unshu production for MY 2024/25 will be 646,000 MT, down 5.2 percent from 681,600 MT for the prior marketing year.
Consumption
Although Japan's unshu production has become approximately 20 percent of what it was in 1975 (3.7 million MT), unshu mikan is still the third most consumed fresh fruit (based on volume) in Japan after bananas and apples. It thus becomes the second most consumed fresh fruit in Japan when including the chubankan variety. For both unshu mikan and chubankan, approximately 90 percent of domestic production is consumed fresh, with the remaining 7 and 3 percent used for juice and canned fruit, respectively.
Japanese consumer preferences for fruit have been shifting toward sweeter products. Thus, many retailers display the brix values for fruit, including for unshu and chubankan, at the point of sale. Accordingly, breeding programs aim for sweeter varieties, and sorting facilities for unshu oranges are all equipped with brix sensors. While production has been on a continuous decline, growers focus on producing high-quality products to increase unit prices and corresponding income. However, consumers have limited disposable income to spend on citrus and fruit in general. The result is a negative spiral that is leading to further production decreases and increasing unit prices.
FAS/Tokyo anticipates the decline in mandarin consumption will continue for several marketing years going forward. As a result, fresh mandarin consumption in Japan for MY 2024/25 is estimated to decline 4.8 percent to 775,000 MT.
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