Early seasonal conditions for the MY 2024/25 citrus crop have been very favorable. Along with expansion in production areas, growers anticipate an improvement in production and the prospect of high-quality fruit production. Orange production is expected to increase five percent to 545,000 metric tons (MT) from the prior's year estimate, the highest over the last two decades. Tangerine/mandarin production is forecast to reach a record 225,000 MT. Orange exports are forecast to reach the third-highest output on record of 190,000 MT, and tangerine/mandarin exports are expected to reach a new record of 105,000 MT for MY 2024/25. Orange juice production is forecast to fall by two percent to 15,000 MT, mainly due to the anticipated improvement of fresh (navel) orange fruit quality. In contrast, imports are forecast to recover to 13,000 MT after falling from a lack of supply due to a severe drought impacting production in Brazil.
Orange production in Australia is projected to increase to 545,000 metric tons (MT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25, up from an estimated 520,000 MT in MY 2023/24. If realized, this situation would mark the highest production level in the past two decades. This growth is attributed to favorable early growing conditions for MY 2024/25 and an expansion in the production area. The lead-up to the fruit set benefited from relatively dry weather in key orange-producing regions, followed by above-average rainfall that supported robust fruit growth. Additionally, lower-than-usual winds minimized blemishes on the fruit. Overall, the early production outlook for the forecast year is highly positive in terms of both quantity and quality.
Citrus producers are also experiencing stable input costs, particularly for fertilizers and crop protection chemicals. Additionally, major irrigation water storages remain relatively high, ensuring ample water availability at reasonable prices comparable to those in MY 2023/24.
Orange exports are forecast to reach 190,000 MT, a 10,000 MT increase over the MY 2023/24 estimate, driven by higher production. If achieved, this would be Australia's third-largest export volume on record. Domestic consumption is also expected to rise to 170,000 MT in MY 2024/25, up from an estimated 150,000 MT for the previous marketing year. However, the volume of oranges allocated for processing is forecast to decline by almost three percent to 195,000 MT, reflecting improved fresh fruit quality. This marks a continued improvement from MY 2023/24, which benefited from drier conditions after several wetter-than-usual seasons that had previously compromised production and fruit quality.
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