Post forecasts China's overall citrus production in MY2024/25 will grow from MY2023/24, despite weather-related challenges. Orange production is decreasing slightly due to the naturally smaller Navel crop year, while the production of tangerine/mandarins as well as pomelos/grapefruit will continue to grow. With China's large supply and increasing demand from southeast countries, Post forecasts citrus exports will continue to grow in MY2024/25.
China remains the world's largest citrus producer, with dominant production of oranges, tangerines, mandarins, pomelos, and grapefruits. In 2023, China reported yet another 7 percent increase in citrus production, reaching a net total of more than 64 million metric tons. After grouping by regional leaders, the largest citrus-growing provinces are Guangxi and Guangdong in south China, representing approximately 38 percent of the country's total. Hunan and Hubei provinces in central China produce 20 percent of the total citrus crop. Jiangxi and Fujian provinces account for 16 percent of overall citrus production. In the west, Chongqing and Sichuan represent a similar 16 percent of production. Citrus production in Yunnan and Guizhou is also on the rise. The remaining provinces represent only four percent of China's citrus crop.
Each Chinese province is known throughout Southeast Asia for its citrus specialties. Guangxi continues to be the largest production area for wogan and shatangju varieties of tangerines and mandarins. Chunjian and buzhihuo are citrus hybrids mostly grown in Sichuan and Chongqing. Red beauty oranges from Zhejiang are considered of superior quality, while Jiangxi is famous for its Nanfengmiju mandarins. With favorable weather and geographic advantages, Yunnan produces a large variety of citrus produce, including nanfengmiju, aiyuan, buzhihuo, mingrijian, and chunjian. Guangdong is known for its high volume, continuing to produce massive crops of shatangju. The citrus crops in Fujian and Jiangxi feature late-variety oranges and hybrid tangerines.
Regarding the MY 2024/25 crop, Post forecasts citrus production will grow slightly, despite challenges. Cold weather in early Spring may have impacted fruit setting. In addition, greening disease impacted multiple growing areas. The Guangxi shatangju crop could be down by 15-20 percent. The production challenges will be offset by growth in the total number of producers in the industry, some of them new to orange farming.
Post estimates China's orange production at 7.62 million metric tons (MMT) in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 (November-October), a slight reduction from the revised Post estimate for MY 2023/24. A range of weather-related issues are threatening orange production, including persistent rain in April and May that has caused lower fruit-setting rates, as well as high temperatures in August and September. In addition, acreage reduction was rumored to be down because of weak market prices and competing crops. Specifically, Jiangxi and Guangxi province is expected to produce 20 percent fewer oranges because of maturing fruit trees and greening disease.
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