Recent years have seen the Mexican berry industry grappling with increased input costs, a volatile peso-dollar exchange rate, adverse weather conditions, and labor shortages, leading to anticipated declines in both production and exports for 2025. Juan José Flores García, general director of the National Association of Berry Exporters (Aneberries), highlighted the compounded challenges of unfavorable weather and a labor deficit of up to 15% for top producers, alongside an uncooperative currency situation.
Projections for 2024 indicate a reduction in berry exports (strawberries, blackberries, raspberries, blueberries) to approximately 529,000 tons from 541,000 tons in 2023, marking a 2.22% decrease. The export value also faced a downturn, attributed to exchange rate fluctuations, dropping from 2023's $3,937 million. The peso's strength against the dollar in the first half of 2024, at an average of 16.94 units per dollar according to Bank of Mexico (Banxico), shifted in the latter half, depreciating by 19%, potentially mitigating export value losses.
Production forecasts for 2024 show a significant decline to 800,000 tons from over 1.1 million tons in 2023, a 27.3% drop. This downturn follows a period of restructuring within the market, addressing commercial and macroeconomic challenges that reduced production volumes by an average of 11% and export levels by 15 to 20%, depending on the berry type. The primary markets for Mexican berries remain the United States and Canada, absorbing 95% of exports, with the remainder distributed across Europe and Asia, including the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Spain, Japan, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.
Flores García predicts that 2025 will continue the trend of reduced volumes, positioning the sector at a critical juncture. He suggests that producers with formalized administrative and production processes, alongside stable marketing strategies, will be better equipped to navigate the forthcoming challenges.
Source: Blueberries Consulting