In the latter half of 2024 in Brazil, El Niño transitioned to La Niña, though this shift occurred later than anticipated and was moderate and brief, with a more pronounced impact in January 2025. Climatempo forecasts a weakening of La Niña from March, suggesting neutral climatic conditions for autumn and winter 2025. Despite La Niña's characteristics, rainfall returned to historical averages by January 2025 during the 2024/25 summer.
Banana production in 2024 faced challenges due to weather and phytosanitary issues, leading to limited supply and increased prices. In the South and Southeast, excessive rainfall followed by dry and hot weather stressed banana plantations, hindering recovery. In the Semiarid region, heatwaves and "Panama disease" affected silver banana production. For 2025, improved phytosanitary control and resumption of regular rainfall in the Southeast may aid partial recovery.
Apple production in the 2023/24 harvest was impacted by mild winter and rainy spring in the South, affecting plant vigor, budding, and flowering, and resulting in a 25% decrease in harvested volume. A slight recovery is expected in 2024/25, though previous rains and disease pressures continue to affect production.
Formosa papaya supply began in 2024 with high volumes due to accelerated ripening from December 2023's high temperatures. However, milder weather later in the year controlled supply, with excess from September to November as temperatures rose again. By late December 2024, increased rainfall and high temperatures limited supply, with stabilization expected in early 2025.
Melon production in 2024 saw specific climate impacts early in the year. Rain in the Northeast delayed planting in the São Francisco Valley and increased disease incidence. Though the RN/CE region was affected, impacts were less severe. January 2025 rains affected production in the Valley but less than in 2024.
Watermelon regions in Rio Grande do Sul faced rainy conditions in early 2024, delaying harvest and reducing productivity. Improved weather in Goiás later in the year aided recovery. High temperatures and increased rainfall in Bahia from January 2025 began to limit fruit development.
Mango supply in 2024 was initially low due to 2023's heat waves but improved with better floral induction and orchard development. São Paulo faced a lower fruit set and increased anthracnose cases due to resumed rains. For 2025, increased rainfall and high temperatures in the Semiarid region are affecting floral induction, restricting supply.
Grape production in 2024 was impacted by rain and high temperatures, reducing output and increasing disease incidence. São Francisco Valley saw reduced production due to early 2024 rains, with potential recovery in 2025. The 2024/25 harvest in Paraná and São Paulo also faced weather-related challenges.
Source: Abrafrutas