The United States International Trade Commission (USITC) has released updated trade data for February 2025 amid discussions on U.S. trade policy. While President Trump's agenda gained attention post-election in November 2024, formal announcements began in early February. The U.S, a key exporter in the nuts category, sees limited immediate market effects until trading partners react. Market players note that anticipation of responses can affect trading activity.
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China was the first to impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. nut exports, effective March 10, which are not yet fully reflected in the trade data. In 2025, U.S. exports of peanuts and tree nuts to China reached 9,571 metric tons (mt), marking an 82% year-over-year (y-o-y) decrease and 64% below the 2015-2024 average for the same period. These exports include *HS4 Codes 0802 & 1202.
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Over the 2015-2024 period, January- February totals varied from 5.3k mt to 52.7k mt, with year-end totals ranging from 48.6k mt to 462k mt. In 2015, 2016, and 2019, slow starts were noted, with 2015 and 2019 finishing below average, while 2016 aligned with the average. China's demand for U.S. nuts fluctuates due to its own production of peanuts and walnuts and a shift towards Australian almonds. U.S. pistachio exports to China were notable in 2023 and 2024. As U.S.-China tariff rates change, market participants expect shifts in Chinese procurement strategies.
Sourcer: Mintec/Expana