"With high prices throughout the season, the avocado market is not weakening," according to François Bellivier, head of development at Capexo. This situation is in stark contrast to last year, and is likely to continue for several months. "We have not seen the drop in prices that we experienced last year. By way of comparison, prices this week (week 36) reached 11.5-12.5 euros [12.8-13.9 USD] per parcel for the Peruvian and South African origins, whereas in the same week last year, they did not rise above 6.5-7 euros [7.2-7.8 USD]. The summer of 2023 was oversupplied, whereas this year, the flow of goods was much smaller."
The volumes from Peru fell by 9% compared to last season, and the campaign is set to end much earlier. As for the other origins - Kenya and South Africa - they are being penalized by "freight problems linked to the war in the Middle East."
High prices could lead to a drop in quality
While it is customary to take a cautious approach to market trends in the fruit and vegetable sector, the outlook for avocados seems relatively clear for the coming months. "In the coming weeks, the market should be under-supplied, with particularly high prices. This is going to be very tricky to manage in the face of retail promotion plans which, unfortunately, are not always in tune with the reality of the market." This situation is set to continue until the beginning of November, but not without consequences. "The problem is that a high market like this is likely to attract produce from origins at the start of their campaign when quality is not optimal yet. We therefore could end up with expensive avocados of mediocre quality which, in the long term, could penalize the trade."
Towards a more balanced market in the next two months
From November onwards, the market is likely to become more balanced, with the arrival of imports from Morocco - up 15% from 2023 - and Israel, with similar volumes as last year, when a record of 93,000 tons of avocados were exported. "After this drop in volume, which should last until November, we should return to normal supplies for the rest of the year, until we switch to the campaigns from Brazil and Peru in February/March, expected to arrive ahead of schedule."
For more information:
François Bellivier
Capexo
Phone: +33 1 41 73 23 00
Mobile: +33 6 75 03 76 54
[email protected]
www.capexo.fr