In terms of total volume, Mexico´s marketing year (MY) 2024/25 total deciduous fruit production is forecast nearly unchanged, with a small decline in pear production mostly offset by minor growth in apple and table grape production. Apple consumption is forecast to grow only slightly. Pear consumption is estimated to grow by 3 percent. Grape consumption is forecasted to lower as inflation affects the purchasing power of Mexican households. With stable year-to-year domestic production, imported products largely from the United States will address the minor consumption growth for apples and pears. Even though U.S. apples entered the retail market at a competitive price to start the 2024 season, domestic supply is also abundant. Mexico's grape exports are forecast at a record for the second consecutive year.
Post's total production forecast for MY 2024/25 is 817,000 metric tons (MT), slightly above the large crop estimate in 2023/24 of 816,533 MT. In MY 2023/24, Mexico's apple production increased 28.9 percent from the 2021/22 season, a recent low point, due in large part to post-harvest technology investments such as atmosphere-controlled storage. However, Post´s forecasted increase in production is tempered by the prevailing trends such as an overall reduction in chill hours received by orchards throughout the season which is key for fruit development and overall orchard health.
The production estimate in MY 2023/24 of 816,533 MT is based on currently available data. The MY 2023/24 crop resulted in higher volume and better quality due to overall ideal conditions throughout most of the season. In volume terms, MY 2023/24 represents a small increase from the prior year, based on available data. Sentiment among producers in the medium term is that output can be maintained at 2023/24 levels.
The states of Chihuahua, Puebla, and Coahuila account for over 93 percent of Mexican apple production. Chihuahua alone accounts for an estimated 85 percent of production. Without major growth in other states, Chihuahua will remain the primary cultivation area and is key to understanding Mexico's national apple production. Given the higher temperatures and aridity experienced in Northern Mexico versus other apple-producing regions of the world, one of the key factors allowing for successful commercial apple production in Chihuahua is the higher elevation of many of the production zones. Of the three top-producing municipalities (Cuauhtemoc, Guerrero, Namiquipa) all are over 6,000 feet in elevation, with some cultivation zones well over 7,000 feet, which provides the periodic cooling needed for commercial orchards to produce.
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