President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on imported goods could significantly impact the availability and cost of fresh produce in the United States, where reliance on imports has been rising steadily. In 2021, about 60% of fresh fruit and nearly 40% of vegetables consumed in the U.S. were imported, compared to 50% and 25% in 2013, respectively, according to the USDA.
The growing demand for year-round availability of seasonal items has driven a sharp increase in produce imports. Federal data shows that the value of food imports reached nearly $190 billion in 2023, a 75% increase over the past decade. This reliance on imported produce highlights potential vulnerabilities as tariffs threaten to raise consumer prices.
Economists warn that Trump's proposed 10% tariff on all imports, and up to 60% on Chinese products, could significantly push up grocery costs. Retailers are likely to pass these added costs to shoppers, particularly for items like fruits and vegetables, which are heavily sourced from abroad.
While tariffs aim to boost domestic production, experts argue they will likely backfire for produce, where certain items, like coffee and tropical fruits, cannot be grown domestically. Grocers may attempt to offset costs by reducing package sizes or finding alternative strategies, but the overall effect is expected to be inflationary, with fresh produce prices among the hardest hit.
Source: Grocerydive