The global avocado market is experiencing dynamic shifts, influenced by production increases, shifting consumer demand, and logistical challenges. Peru, Israel, and Morocco currently dominate the supply, while the wholesale market price for standard commercial sizes (14-16-18) ranges from 20 to 23 euros per crate. In Europe, supply and demand remain balanced, but economic factors, including inflation and political instability in France, have weakened demand. Meanwhile, competition among suppliers continues to intensify, particularly as Spain faces increasing pressure from Morocco and Kenya encounters export difficulties. The Super Bowl on February 10, a major driver of U.S. avocado consumption, could temporarily reduce export volumes to Europe, potentially affecting availability in European markets.
North America expects a strong supply from Mexico and California, with California's 2025 crop projected at 375 million pounds, the largest since 2020. European markets continue to see shifting supply dynamics, with Italy emerging as a growing consumer and Spain increasing its Hass avocado production while reducing greenskin varieties. South Africa anticipates a steady export volume of 21 million 4kg cartons despite an "off" bearing year, offset by new orchard expansions. Morocco's production has increased significantly from 60,000 to 90,000 tonnes, though price drops earlier in the season led some growers to delay harvesting.
Despite growing international competition, Germany's avocado sales remain stable, while Colombia has shifted 50% of its exports to the U.S. due to European oversupply. Climate change, particularly El Niño, and logistical disruptions such as the Suez Canal closure are additional factors placing pressure on the global avocado trade. As international markets adjust to these developments, exporters are diversifying strategies, including Peru's expansion into Asia, while European producers navigate intensifying competition from non-EU suppliers.
North America: Strong avocado supply expected from Mexico and California
Avocado supply has been improving throughout January, with peak sizes at 60, 48, and 70. Fruit is coming from Mexico and California, though the overall supply is slightly lighter than last year. However, Mexican avocados have high dry matter, ensuring good eating quality.
In addition to Mexico and California—where the 2025 crop is projected at 375 million pounds, the largest since 2020—Colombia is also supplying avocados, primarily to the East Coast.
Mexico experienced strong summer rainfall, and favorable growing conditions in the fall and winter have resulted in a smaller-sized crop, with 60s and smaller making up the majority.
Demand remains strong, as is typical from January through March, particularly leading up to the Super Bowl, which drives high avocado consumption.
Growers have been harvesting strong volumes in recent weeks, ensuring a good supply for the February promotional period.
Italy: Avocado market faces challenges amid shifting supply dynamics
The avocado market in northern Italy is going through a complicated period, particularly for green-skinned varieties. Although Israel has a good supply, a unique trend has emerged this year: despite geopolitical tensions, Israel is selling a significant amount of avocados to Russia. This is unexpected given Russia's strained relations with Israel's allies. However, economic factors may be driving this decision, as Russia offers higher prices due to international sanctions, making trade more profitable for Israel.
In Europe, avocado supply is limited, leading to relatively high prices. The Israeli Pinkerton variety is almost unavailable, while Moroccan avocados are maintaining stable purchase prices. Spain, which initially set high prices, is now lowering them due to increased competition. Meanwhile, Peru has started exporting its first shipments of green-skinned avocados.
Demand for avocados in Europe remains low, with January seeing minimal consumption.
"The avocado is no longer an exotic fruit; it has become as common as a banana—an everyday staple that is increasingly well-known and sought after," says another wholesaler from northern Italy. He notes that most avocados currently on sale come from Morocco, with Spain and Portugal next in line.
Hass remains the most popular variety, with prices currently falling slightly to around €18 per 4kg box. As with most fruits, size determines the price.
Spain: Positive outlook for avocado season despite competition from Morocco
The adaptability of avocados to different climates has enabled their expansion across various regions of Spain, bringing stability to volumes for the 2024/25 campaign. However, production in La Axarquía continues to be affected by drought.
In Huelva, the harvest is expected to increase by around 30% compared to last year, "and it may be even higher," says one operator. "However, we are still far from reaching 100% of the expected production for the planted hectares. Due to the drought, water availability had to be optimized, reducing the cultivated area to ensure sufficient irrigation for selected groves, which allowed for good yields and sizes."
Huelva has rapidly become the third-largest avocado-growing province in Andalusia, doubling its planted area in just two years—from 700 hectares in the 2021/22 season to 1,400 hectares in 2023/24. Avocado cultivation is also expanding quickly in the Valencian Community. According to Spain's Survey of Areas and Yields of Crops (Esyrce), the most recent data from 2023 shows that the region had 3,700 hectares of avocado orchards—an increase of nearly 19% compared to the previous year.
"The Valencian campaign is also performing well in terms of prices," says a local operator. "In 2024, prices were generally strong, and expectations for this year remain positive. As always, everything depends on how the market sets prices. So far, Hass avocados are priced slightly lower than last year, but we are confident in the advantage of our Lamb Hass variety. Its marketing window, from March to mid-April, falls between the end of the domestic Hass season and the start of Peruvian exports."
"This year, the Lamb Hass campaign is expected to start earlier, around late February, reducing overlap with the first Peruvian shipments."
At the beginning of the season, industry sources highlight the increasing impact of competition from Morocco, which is more pronounced this year. "Last year, drought limited production, so it wasn't as much of a concern. But this year, Morocco is exporting large volumes directly to the UK and Europe—our key markets—offering strong arrival capacity and highly competitive prices."
However, Spanish growers see clear advantages. "Our production window is longer than Morocco's, and from February to April, we are practically the main supplier to the European market. Additionally, while Morocco must ship full truckloads to Europe, our specialization and logistics allow us to reach any part of the continent with smaller, more flexible shipments."
Spain is one of the largest consumers of avocados in Europe, with households purchasing the most avocados annually. However, Spain's greenskin avocado production is decreasing, while the production of Hass avocados is increasing due to the planting of new orchards.
France: Avocado prices drop as French demand weakens amid rising supply from Morocco, Israel, and Spain
Avocado prices are lower than at the same time last year due to increased production in Morocco, Israel, and Spain. At the same time, the European market is struggling to absorb larger volumes, particularly from Latin America at the start of the season.
In France, inflation and political instability have contributed to weaker demand, making it more difficult for the market to sustain higher prices. Consumer purchasing power has been affected, leading to reduced sales despite steady supply growth.
Additionally, Lebanon has recently entered the avocado market, though its production remains relatively small. However, volumes from Lebanon are expected to increase in the coming years, adding another source of supply to the market.
Morocco: Strong avocado production drives prices down, but market shows signs of recovery
The Moroccan avocado season began in October 2024 and is expected to continue until late March or early April. Growers benefited from favorable weather conditions, with minimal hot dry winds and no storms—two major climatic factors that affected the previous season.
Expansion of avocado acreage and the maturation of trees have led to a significant production increase, from 60,000 tonnes last season to an estimated 90,000 tonnes this season, based on the most conservative projections.
This sharp rise in production, spread across 10,000 hectares, combined with competition from Latin American suppliers, caused prices to drop by 10-15% compared to the start of the previous season. One exporter noted, "We started the season from a position of weakness. Several parties projected excessively high volumes, giving the market the leverage to push prices down. It's clear that buyers are determined to lower the price of Moroccan avocados."
As a result, many producers chose to delay harvesting. By mid-December, only 30,000 tonnes had been exported, followed by a slow market period due to the end-of-year holidays. By mid-January, just half of the crop had been harvested.
"A lot of growers, especially those with large operations who can afford to wait, have yet to harvest their fruit," said a grower representative. "This strategy has proven effective, as prices are now improving."
Morocco remains a dominant supplier in the market and continues to be a strong alternative, offering an ample supply of large-sized avocados. Spain is facing increasing competition from Morocco in the European market.
Germany: Sales remain strong
Despite increasing international competition from markets such as India, Asia, and the USA, consumer demand for avocados and sales volume in Germany remains strong, according to a well-known importer.
Belgium: Many large sizes and few small creates a bit of price pressure
The avocado market is going steady, according to a Belgian importer. "There is currently a lack of small sizes, which drives up the price, while supermarkets are less interested in large calibres, leading to price differences. We now work mainly with avocados from Colombia and Morocco, which mainly have thick fruit. Spain is also in the market, but that is just too expensive. They don't have large volumes and also a high own consumption. Peruvian avocados are coming in slowly, but it will take several weeks for those volumes to take off. However, demand remains stable as avocados are a commodity in demand all year round."
Israel: Israeli avocado season sees strong supply, with larger Pinkerton sizes expected soon
The Israeli greenskin avocado season started with a large supply of Ettinger avocados, primarily in smaller sizes. This was followed by Pinkerton avocados, also mostly in smaller sizes. Over the coming weeks, the proportion of small Pinkerton avocados is expected to decrease, with more large sizes becoming available.
From weeks 8-9, Pinkerton volumes (arriving in weeks 10-11) will gradually decrease. The Israeli Hass season will continue until April, with the distribution of available sizes remaining as usual. After a few dry weeks, rain is expected soon, which should improve the quality of Hass avocados.
South Africa: Optimism grows as South Africa begins harvesting its 2025 avocado crop
In 2024, total exports reached 21 million 4kg cartons, including approximately 1.5 million cartons from Zimbabwe and Mozambique shipped via South Africa. Early projections suggest that export volumes will remain similar this year. Although 2025 is an "off" year in the avocado-bearing cycle, the usual 15% to 20% production decline is being offset by newly established orchards.
Avocado cultivation continues to expand, with around 800 hectares planted annually. With over 20,000 hectares currently under cultivation, volume growth is expected to continue for at least the next five years before reaching a plateau. Opportunities exist in the domestic market, particularly at the start and end of the season, as demonstrated by recent concerns over low avocado availability. Additionally, new export possibilities have opened with access to China, India, and Japan.
The first shipments of South African avocados to Europe typically arrive in weeks 11 or 12, before the influx of Peruvian avocados shifts market dynamics. During this early window, prices are high due to limited competition, primarily from late-season Israeli and Spanish avocados. However, once Peru begins exporting in large volumes, market conditions change significantly.
"We aim to exit the European market with Hass avocados by week 18. We have a ten-week window in which we push as hard as we can," says an exporter who begins shipping by week 8. "We always have a 10% to 15% exposure to Peruvian avocados."
Colombia: Avocado growth faces logistical hurdles and European oversupply
Colombia's avocado industry has seen remarkable growth in recent years, but logistical challenges are slowing its expansion. Port congestion and a shortage of refrigerated containers have caused shipment delays, impacting the freshness and quality of avocados upon arrival.
The European market, traditionally the main destination for Colombian avocados, experienced an oversupply last season, leading to price declines. In response, exporters have diversified their shipments, with up to 50% of production now going to the United States. At the same time, producers are focusing on improving productivity and quality to remain competitive in an increasingly demanding market. Colombia projects export growth of 20-25% in 2025.
The global avocado market is under pressure from increasing export volumes from new suppliers such as Morocco and Kenya, which have intensified competition in European and Asian markets. This surge in supply has driven prices down and raised expectations for quality and certification standards.
In response, Latin American producers are prioritizing sustainable practices and certifications that ensure responsible fruit handling, aligning with growing consumer demand for products with a lower environmental impact. Food safety and chemical residue management have also become key factors for maintaining competitiveness in the global market.
Peru: Delayed ripening, rising prices, and expansion in Asia
The 2024 Peruvian avocado season has been marked by delays in fruit ripening due to insufficient dry matter accumulation, complicating both harvest and export. Additionally, strong competition from European avocados, particularly from Spain, has kept supply levels high in the market. Weather conditions have also impacted yields and fruit quality, which could influence availability in the coming months.
Despite these challenges, industry sources indicate that Peru's avocado production in 2024 could surpass the 558,000 tons recorded in 2023. However, the harvest has been delayed by two to three weeks, which may affect market dynamics moving forward. Estimates suggest that export volumes this year could exceed 600,000 tons, further solidifying Peru's position as one of the world's leading avocado exporters.
As competition in Europe intensifies, Peru is expanding its reach in Asian markets, where demand has been steadily growing. This strategy involves trade agreements and increased investment in promotional efforts to establish Asia as a key destination for Peruvian avocados.
At the same time, rising production costs have led to higher avocado prices, which could impact Peru's competitiveness in some markets.
There will not be a Global Market Overview next week as our team will be attending Fruit Logistica. Next topic: Onions