The December production forecast from Fundecitrus for Brazil's 2024/25 orange crop is 223.14 million boxes, marking a 3.4% increase from the September estimate of 215.80 million boxes. If achieved, this would still represent a 27.4% decline compared to the 2023/24 crop.
Weaker demand has led to reduced pricing, with Brazilian producers offering orange juice concentrate FOB between $6,150/metric tonne (mt) and $6,450/mt. The Expana Benchmark Prices (EBP) were at $6,355/mt after the January 31 assessment, reflecting a 3% decrease month-on-month. Market participants note, "consumer demand for orange juice concentrate continues to soften due to persistently high market prices," despite recent declines. Not-from-concentrate (NFC) orange juice has been less impacted, though slight demand weakness is reported.
The tight supply over the past year has led many European retailers to substitute 100% orange juice with nectars or juice drinks. However, with weaker global demand, analysts no longer foresee a supply shortage before the next Brazilian crop. The upcoming harvest is reportedly in favorable condition, with initial industry estimates ranging from 270 million to 300 million boxes. Some market sources indicate that buyers have paused purchasing activity and delayed shipments of orange juice concentrate.
Source: Mintec/Expana