As tariffs fluctuate, the impact on food prices and availability, particularly for perishables like fresh fruits and vegetables, is under scrutiny. John Lowrey, a supply chain expert at Northeastern University, suggests that while fresh produce will remain available, the variety on shelves may shift if trade tensions escalate.
Lowrey explains that although U.S. consumers might not see a reduction in the availability of products like avocados, the varieties available could change. "The U.S. consumer will not necessarily see lower availability of avocados, let's say, but there will certainly be a change in the varieties of avocados on the shelf with characteristics that correspond to changes in how these products are sourced," he states. For instance, there might be more California avocado varieties compared to Mexican ones.
Since the 1980s, the U.S. has seen a surge in fresh fruit and vegetable imports, largely due to trade agreements like NAFTA and USMCA. In 2023, Mexico supplied a substantial portion of these imports, with 51% of fresh fruits and 69% of fresh vegetables. However, tariffs on Mexico and Canada, key trade partners, could disrupt this trend.
The impact on specific fruits and vegetables depends on whether the U.S. is a net importer or exporter of the commodity. For net importers, like strawberries, tariffs could reduce supply and increase prices. "With tariffs slapped on strawberries from Mexico, for example, then the supply of strawberries in the U.S. will fall, making strawberries more expensive," Lowrey explains.
Conversely, for net exporters, domestic supply remains stable unless retaliatory tariffs are imposed. "Tariffs are not set in isolation," notes Lowrey. Retaliatory measures could reduce demand for U.S. exports, affecting domestic farmers' profitability and potentially leading to shifts in crop production.
Lowrey predicts a reliance on domestically produced, in-season varieties due to uneven tariffs, such as sourcing citrus from Florida instead of Mexico. However, changes in food availability due to tariffs may take time to manifest. "These things don't change immediately," Lowrey says, indicating that adjustments in trade and availability will not be instantaneous.
Source: Northeastern Global News