"Average container freight rates for Chinese exports have dropped 28% since the start of the year, posting the worst first quarter development of the past twenty years," says Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO.
The China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI), based on data from twenty-three liner operators, indicates the export freight rate level from ten major ports. The CCFI fell from 1,548 to 1,112, influenced by a record decline in spot freight rates. The Shanghai Containerized Export Freight Index (SCFI), which tracks spot rates for Shanghai exports, decreased by 46% since the year's start, marking the largest first-quarter drop since its inception in 2009.
Rasmussen notes, "Since 2006, the CCFI has on average only fallen 2% during the first quarter and has only declined more than 10% four times. The second worst year was 2023, when average rates fell 24% between the start and end of the first quarter."
Despite a promising start with a 20% YoY growth in export market volumes from East and Southeast Asia in January, rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope has absorbed 10-12% of the fleet's capacity. Trades to Europe and the Mediterranean saw rate drops of 33% and 32%, respectively. North-south trades experienced reductions with rates to South Africa, Australia/New Zealand, South America, and West Africa falling significantly. However, rates between China and Japan remained stable.
Source: Container News