"There are different reasons for the lower volumes than were initially expected," says an industry source who asks not to be quoted. "We started at 165 million and now we're at 156 million cartons, and the lower flow of fruit is a result of quality issues and of yield. In general it's been more of a supply side thing than because of phytosanitary reasons."
Last year a total of 164.8 million cartons of citrus were exported by South Africa.
The last consignments to reach China ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival are being prepared.
The approaching duty deadline on South African fruit in Europe will start to influence the trade flow and just as well: exporters focusing on the East have told FreshPlaza it's been more difficult than usual to procure fruit in what has been a rather Eurocentric season.
Valencias are 5 million cartons off the original estimate.
Three million fewer cartons of grapefruit have been exported this season with a firm juice price giving producers in the north another option to exports; processing grade and marginal counts of grapefruit were not exported but consumer demand seems to be slacking down in South Africa's traditional grapefruit markets.
At the port of Durban a very quiet reefer season has been noted; from this week onwards the port expects a decline in citrus volumes (mostly Valencias and mandarins) from production areas in the north.
Mandarin volumes will be about 3 million cartons above last year's exports (33.8 million cartons expected) and lemon volumes have also grown, from 34.7 million in 2022 to 35.4 million cartons this year.
