Experts estimate China’s production of apples, pears, and table grapes to increase to 45 MMT, 19.6 MMT, and 13.5 MMT, respectively, in MY 2023/24. Apple imports will likely decline by 20 percent due to reduced supplies and higher prices in major exporting countries. Table grape imports will further decrease by 30 percent, substituted by improved production volumes and desirable domestic varieties. Despite China’s limited import volume, pear imports will continue to increase by 20 percent on rising demand.
The apple acreage is forecast to further decrease to 1.94 million hectares in MY 2023/24 from the revised estimate of 1.96 hectares in MY 2022/23 given tightened policy on farmland use and replacement of less productive trees. The national food security policy discourages the planting of fruit crops on farmland. As a result, fruit acreage has declined in Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong since 2021.
In northwestern provinces, such as Shaanxi and Gansu, local governments support farmers to renovate their orchards and replace old apple trees with new plantings. In general, apple producers will optimize apple plantation in traditional production areas, specifically the Loess Plateau of northwest China and provinces surrounding Bohai Bay, rather than increase acreage. However, apple plantations are increasing in Xinjiang and the southwest highlands, mainly in Yunnan and Sichuan provinces.
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Source: apps.fas.usda.gov