FAS Lima forecasts Peruvian mandarin/tangerine production at 545,000 metric tons (MT) for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (March 2024 to February 2025), a decrease of one percent compared to the previous year. Lower yields driven by above average temperatures and other potential adverse weather conditions will negatively impact production and exports. Domestic consumption of fresh mandarins/tangerines is forecast at 318,000 in MY 2023/2024, a two percent decrease from the previous year. Peruvian mandarin/tangerine exports are forecast to remain at 200,000 MT. The United States will likely remain Peru’s top export partner.
Production
Mandarin production in Peru is forecast to reach 545,000 metric tons (MT), for marketing year (MY) 2023/24 (March 2024 to February 2025), a decrease of one percent compared to previous year. Weather anomalies associated with the El Niño phenomenon will likely impact the coming year's productivity, especially among early-season varieties. According to the Peruvian government’s El Niño monitoring system, warm conditions are likely to persist, with projections that El Niño’s intensity could be strong (49%) to moderate (47%). El Niño occurrence might also impact mandarin/tangerine from heavy rainfall and potential crop area loss due to flooding.
Unfavorable weather conditions, increased rain prior to harvest, and above-average temperatures delayed production in the current marketing year. Peru experienced an unexpected warmer winter (4-5℃ above average), impacting production of early varieties such as Primosoles, Clementines, and Satsumas. Mandarins need cool weather in the final stages of production to achieve the color standard needed for export quality. Expectations of late varieties (Tangelo, Tango, Orri, and W. Murcott) were high but adverse weather conditions remained and late varieties performed below average as well. The harvest season in Peru lasts from March to October, however seasonality in MY 2022/2023 was altered with a delayed start, causing less and late availability of fruit. Weather conditions were the main driver of the 10 percent decline of MY 2022/2023 exports.
Total fresh exports in MY 2022/23 were down 10 percent from the previous year, decreasing from 220,000 MT to 200,000 MT. In MY 2015/16, Peru exported 112,000 MT, and has shown consistent growth, nearly doubling their exports since then.
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Source: apps.fas.usda.gov