Stone fruit production in Australia is forecast to increase in marketing year (MY) 2024/25 after above-average rainfall impacted some regions during the harvest period for MY 2023/24, which impacted overall production and quality. Cherry production is forecast to rise by eight percent, while peaches and nectarines are forecast to increase by six percent. Favorable conditions, including very good cold chill hours and around average rainfall, are forecast for the coming months and are anticipated to support higher production. Growers expect improved fruit quality if average or below-average rainfall continues into the harvest period. Consequently, cherry exports are forecast to increase by 25 percent, and peaches and nectarine exports by four percent. Imports of stone fruits are also forecast to rise in MY 2024/25 from low levels.
Cherry production in Australia for MY 2024/25 is forecast to increase to 20,000 metric tons (MT), up from the downward-revised estimate of 18,500 MT for MY 2023/24. This production forecast is 17 percent above the previous five-year average and eight percent above the prior year (see Figure 2). Despite this increase, the forecast remains subdued, aligning with two past results over recent years, despite growth in cherry plantings. The anticipated increase for MY 2024/25 is mainly due to expected favorable production conditions. It also reflects a continued rebound from the significantly lower-than-usual harvest in MY 2022/23, caused by unseasonably wet conditions during the harvest in New South Wales and Victoria. Production in MY 2023/24 was well below expectations due to a second successive year of wet conditions at harvest in the same regions, though the impact was less severe.
With an expected eight percent increase in production for MY 2024/25 and increased imports, domestic consumption of cherries is forecast to rise to 17,000 MT, up from an estimated 15,500 MT in MY 2023/24. This forecasted level of consumption is approximately in line with MY 2018/19 and MY 2020/21, when production reached 20,100 MT, a similar level to the projected 20,000 MT for MY 2024/25
The last three production seasons have been disrupted by wet spring weather to varying degrees, adversely impacting the volume and quality of cherries produced in Australia. COVID-19-related labor availability and supply chain-related issues had abated by MY 2023/24. For the forecast year, the main factors influencing domestic cherry consumption are the overall production level and fruit quality. With a good start to the season, anticipated around average rainfall in the coming months, and ample irrigation water availability, there is an expectation of good quality and high production for the forecast year. This is expected to drive significant growth in cherry exports, potentially limiting the growth of domestic consumption. However, consumption is anticipated to reach typical levels associated with high production years.
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