In contrast to the production surplus in MY 2023/24, total citrus production is expected to decrease 36 percent in MY 2024/25 to around 5 million metric tons (MMT) due to excessive heat during the blooming period and drought conditions during the harvest period. Due to projected decreased production, it is expected that citrus prices at supermarkets will increase. According to Turkish citrus exporters, exports in MY 2024/25 will be lower than the previous season, however, they expect higher revenue due to lower production in competitor countries. On the other hand, orange exports in MY 2024/25 are expected to stagnate at 260,000 MT despite low yields and increasing production costs, along with high foreign demand. Traders note that their export capabilities and profit margins continue to decrease due to unstable exchange rates, high domestic inflation, and rising production.
In MY 2024/25 orange yield is forecast to decrease 30 percent to 1.6 MMT due to excessive hot weather conditions during the blooming period in spring 2024. Unfortunately, yield per acre has reduced by around 50 percent in this season from 491 to 250 kg/tree. The most affected varieties are the early crops, including Navelina and Fukumoto.
In MY 2023/24 Türkiye produced 2.3 MMT of oranges, which was 74 percent higher than MY 2022/23 (1.32 MMT) due to favorable weather conditions in spring 2023. The yield increase was mostly seen in the Washington variety, especially in the Aegean region, which accounts for 70 percent of total orange production in Türkiye. In MY 2023/24 yield per tree increased 62 percent when compared with the previous year
Most of the orange production in Türkiye can be found in the Antalya province. Farmgate prices have increased this season due to the low yield, however, they remain below production cost. Moreover, the price gap between the farmgate and supermarket is high due to rising costs related to transportation, storage, and middlemen in the supply chain.
The Mediterranean fruit fly remains a major concern, causing quality and production losses. To combat the pest, the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MinAF) has been distributing free pheromone traps to farmers through provincial offices and member associations. According to MinAF, a significant increase in the pest population in correlation with climate changes has been observed in recent years, and they are relying on farmers to actively combat the issue with MinAF support.
In MY 2024/25 orange consumption is expected to decrease to 1.2 MMT due to low production, stable export, and high retail market prices (due to rising transportation and input costs such as electricity and packaging). Marketing Year 2023/24 orange consumption was realized at 1.9 MMT, 78 percent higher than MY 2022/23 (1 MMT). According to the latest data published by TurkSTAT, orange consumption per capita was 10.6 kg in MY 2023/24.
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