A severe lack of rainfall this winter is affecting Pakistan's agricultural sector, with farmers anticipating lower yields and potential increases in food prices. The country has received nearly 70% less rainfall than normal, resulting in a shortage of irrigation water, especially in rain-fed regions reliant on seasonal precipitation.
The dry spell is impacting winter crops, fruits, and vegetables, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, the primary food-producing provinces. According to Sardar Sarfraz, chief meteorologist at the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the country experienced 67% less rainfall than usual this winter.
Sindh suffered the most, with a 90% reduction in rainfall, while Punjab recorded a 69% decrease, according to PMD data from September 2024 to January 28, 2025. Other regions experienced deficits: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan had 64% less rainfall, Gilgit-Baltistan was down 32%, and Pakistan-administered Kashmir saw a 72% reduction.
Sarfraz expressed hope for a "good rain spell" in the remaining winter weeks to mitigate these deficits. He attributed the erratic rainfall to climate change and global weather phenomena, noting, "Pakistan's winter rainfall is usually good or even in surplus when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is in its positive phase, and significantly lower when the NAO is negative."
The ongoing dry spell, along with rising temperatures and heat waves, is stressing Pakistan's agriculture sector, which employs 38% of the workforce. Waqar Rizvi, secretary general of the Kisan Board of Pakistan, stated that wheat production could see a 30% to 35% reduction compared to 2024. "Over 60% of the country's wheat crop is in its grain formation and flowering stage, making it extremely vulnerable to drought," Rizvi told Anadolu.
Other crops, such as sugarcane, potatoes, maize, and lentils, are also at risk. "There's already a 50% drop in sugarcane production," Rizvi added. Mahmood Nawaz Shah, president of the Sindh Abadgar Association, indicated that wheat production would likely be lower than last year due to insufficient rainfall and lower sowing rates.
The Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association noted a 35% drop in citrus production, impacting kinnow exports. Rizvi criticized the lack of a consistent agriculture policy, stating, "One year, authorities promise farmers incentives and guaranteed procurement, and the next year, it's totally the opposite."
Rapid urbanization and unchecked housing development are reducing Pakistan's farmlands. The Kisan Board of Pakistan estimates that 20% to 30% of Punjab's agricultural land has been converted to residential and industrial zones. Punjab accounts for 65% of the country's food production, and the loss of farmland could have long-term consequences for food security.
Source: AA