In recent years, the demand for US walnuts has shown an upward trend. Sales reached 691k short tons for the 2021/22 marketing year, climbing to 873k tons by the 2023/24 marketing year, reflecting a 26% increase. This increase aligned with production growth from 670k tons in 2021/22 to 824k tons in 2023/24.
The 2024/25 US walnut crop marked a shift with reduced acreage for walnut production. Weather conditions, including irregular winter and spring patterns and high temperatures in June - July, impacted the nut set, raising concerns about potential production shortfalls amid strong demand. The USDA's September 2024 forecast projected 670k tons, yet by the end of January 2025, the California Walnut Board reported final receipts at 598k tons, falling 11% short of the USDA's forecast.
Prices for 80% Light Halves/Chandler Variety walnuts rose by $0.50/lb in September, maintaining a $4.00-$4.20/lb range since October, with Expana's latest assessment at $4.10/lb as of February 28, 2025. Year-to-date sales were 516k tons by the end of February, with six months remaining in the marketing year. Market participants noted firm conditions and limited supplies, though price fluctuations are possible.
A trader commented, "Stocks are certainly short, so with strong demand prices could always move up some, but there's a risk that buyers will look more to Chile and China if the US prices get too high." Another observation was, that "Some of the small packers that have remaining inventory could push the price down some, as they may offer a little lower to empty their warehouse and reallocate that labor to field activities."
Source: Mintec/Expana