The supply of imported watermelon continues to be steady. "Availability is highest on large fruit right now–36 count are plentiful, but 45 count and 60 count supplies are also adequate to meet demand," says Michael Martori of Stella Farms.
Overall, the available supply is better than this time last year when there was a gap in production between Southern and Northern Mexico leaving short supply.
There are a few regions producing watermelon right now. "Imports from Guatemala should continue for almost another month, and end as scheduled. Growing conditions were very challenging in Guatemala for the first harvest cycle, but conditions have been much better in this second cycle and suppliers are much better as a result," says Martori.
In Mexico, production from Southern Mexico should continue for a bit longer, again as scheduled while the early growing regions in Northern Mexico are just starting up. "Growing conditions in Mexico have been pretty favorable overall this winter, and as we transition into the spring season, the conditions in Mexico look to be pretty favorable as well. We're not anticipating any major issues based on current conditions," says Martori.
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Florida production has begun
Meanwhile, there is limited domestic production in Southern Florida already. "The bulk of the acreage in Northern Mexico and South Florida is starting up a little bit behind schedule, but not much," says Martori, adding that South Florida has had some relatively windy weather during the growing season, and that may impact yields to some degree. However overall conditions haven't been too challenging.
As for demand, it's normal and steady though grower-shippers would like to see more movement on larger fruit.
That said, heading into spring and summer watermelon season, consumption levels are a little hard to predict. "We'll certainly see increased consumption as it warms up in the U.S. and Canada, but consumer confidence has a been a little uncertain recently, so it's hard to predict how the average shopper will react to the current economic conditions," he says, adding that it may be that customers eat out less and cook more at home to save money–a notion which would likely increase watermelon consumption given the fruit is one of the best values per pound in the produce department. "Though if consumers become too conservative with their spending, we might see them focus their produce purchases around staple, low-price items, like potatoes, onions, bananas, etc. and that might negatively impact the watermelon movement," he says.
© Stella Farms
Pricing similar to historical norms
So where is all of this leaving pricing? It has been holding steady with historical norms more recently and pricing is better than it was a year ago with those supply shortages from Mexico. (At the time, that drove pricing to over $400 FOB–current pricing ranges from $260-$280 FOB.)
Grower-shippers are also waiting on tariff news on product being imported into the U.S. from Mexico and Canada. (They are on pause currently until April 2.) "A lot of watermelon production will come from Mexico from April through June, and Canada is a major buyer of U.S. watermelon production. So tariffs would very likely have a significant impact on watermelon markets if they were to go into effect," says Martori.
Looking ahead, watermelon production will be in a transitional stage over the next few weeks as Southern Mexico finishes, Guatemala starts winding down, and the spring crops ramp up in Northern Mexico and South Florida. "It's possible we'll see some tightening of supplies over the next few weeks. Northern Mexico and South Florida are running slightly behind schedule, so it will depend on how long production from Southern Mexico continues," says Martori. "If production from that region were to end sooner than expected, we'd see tightening supplies. However, we may have enough overlap between growing regions, and supply levels will remain stable."
For more information:
Michael Martori
Stella Farms
Tel: +1 (480) 588-7012
mike@stellafarms.com
www.stellafarms.com