If all Dutch citizens were to eat two pieces of fruit daily and eliminate processed meat such as sausages and hamburgers, the Netherlands could see around 20% fewer new cases of diabetes, coronary heart disease, and strokes by 2050. This is the conclusion of new research by Wageningen University & Research (WUR), published in eClinicalMedicine.
The study, led by researcher Ming-Jie (Frederick) Duan, analyzed the potential health impact of fully following dietary recommendations from the Health Council of the Netherlands. While most people know these guidelines—more fruit and vegetables, whole grains, and less red and processed meat—many fail to meet them.
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Using data from the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the researchers modeled future health outcomes based on current and improved diets. They found the greatest health gains could come from two changes: eating more fruit and cutting out processed meat.
Currently, the average Dutch person eats only half the recommended amount of fruit and nearly 40 grams of processed meat per day. The researchers estimate that eliminating processed meat could prevent 22% of new type 2 diabetes cases and 21% of coronary heart disease cases by 2050. Eating two pieces of fruit daily could reduce stroke cases by over 18%.
"That may not seem like much, but it represents a significant number of people," Duan said. At present, over one million people in the Netherlands live with type 2 diabetes.
The team used data from prior studies to link dietary habits with disease risk and applied these associations to Dutch consumption patterns. According to co-author Sander Biesbroek, Dutch diets remain too low in vegetables, fruit, and legumes and too high in sugary drinks and processed meat. Beyond personal health benefits, following dietary guidelines could ease pressure on the healthcare system and lower medical costs. However, changing eating habits remains difficult. Biesbroek noted the strong influence of food marketing and the easy availability of unhealthy products.
To help drive change, he advocates for policies that improve the food environment. "Reducing taxes on healthy products and raising taxes on unhealthy ones like processed meat could help," he said. The study also found that increased consumption of nuts, seeds, and whole grains could further reduce disease risk. For example, consuming more whole grains could prevent 10% of strokes, and eliminating processed meat could modestly lower bowel cancer and stroke cases by 10%.
The findings suggest that even small dietary changes, if adopted widely, could lead to meaningful public health improvements in the coming decades.
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