The Almond Board of California has released its March position report, providing insights into the current supply and demand landscape for the crop year. Before the report's release, market participants surveyed by Expana estimated shipments at 215 million pounds, with a range of 210–220 million pounds. The report indicates that U.S. almond sellers shipped 221 million pounds in March, surpassing the survey range but showing a 6.6% decrease compared to March 2024.
For the crop year to date (August–March), shipments total 1,810 million pounds, trailing last year's 1,839 million pounds by 1.6%. March shipments comprised 52 million pounds domestically (17.1% y-o-y) and 170 million pounds internationally (-2.9% y-o-y).
Key international destinations in February included India (39.7 million pounds), Spain (12.8 million pounds), and the Netherlands (11.5 million pounds). Year-to-date shipments to Western Europe are 5% lower, with India down 9% and the United Arab Emirates down 3%. However, Japan and Morocco saw increases of 4% and 10%, respectively.
New sales totaled 218 million pounds (+19.8% y-o-y, -1.5% m-o-m), with 573 million pounds of committed but unshipped product (-0.3% y-o-y). Supply-side data shows 19.1 million pounds of new receipts in March, bringing the year-to-date total to 2,701 million pounds. Minimal additional receipts are expected for the remainder of the marketing year.
The European Union has announced the postponement of countermeasure tariffs on U.S. almonds until December. Sources indicate that European buyers are likely to secure supplies before annual contracts end in November, aligning with new crop shipments in December and January.
According to the United States International Trade Commission (USITC), the U.S. exported 48.7k metric tons of almonds to EU countries through February 2025, slightly above the 10-year average of 46k mt but below the 51k mt of 2024. Typically, 177k mt is exported from March to October, with 172.4k mt recorded in 2024. The almond marketing year runs from August to July, with carryover supplies often meeting early harvest demand.
The EU accounts for 32% of U.S. almond exports on average. Europe-based traders report rising prices due to tightening supply and complex trade policies. "Demand is there, but many [in Europe] are apprehensive to cover any more need than they have to," a trader noted.
Source: Mintec/Expana-1, Mintec/Expana-2